Trudeau Leaves Canada in Suspense as Anxious Liberals Urge Him to Go
The holiday period has come and gone, but Canadian politics remains gripped by a single question: when will Justin Trudeau finally make an announcement about his future?
As the Prime Minister of Canada, Trudeau has largely disappeared from public view since December 16th, when Chrystia Freeland – his Finance Minister and once his most powerful ally in cabinet – resigned in devastating fashion. Her public letter criticizing him sparked a wave of anxiety among Liberals who are urging him to step aside.
The Pressure Mounts
Lawmakers in Trudeau’s Liberal Party are turning up the pressure on him to quit as the party’s polling numbers slide further. A new survey by Nanos Research, taken over the holiday period, has shown that the Conservative Party is extending its lead going into an election. The Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats if these polling numbers hold up.
The Trudeau government’s hold on parliament is precarious, with the three largest opposition parties promising to vote "no confidence" if he tries to stay in office while a leadership race takes place. This would trigger an election, which would be disastrous for the Liberals given their current polling numbers.
A Leadership Race Looms
Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time – maybe only weeks – before being thrown into a national campaign. This would make it difficult for them to smoothly transition to new leadership and ensure continuity in government.
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run, under different circumstances it could take even longer. Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, said that "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump."
The Road Ahead
Regardless of what happens next, the Liberal Party – which has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War – faces a difficult road in 2025. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19% of the popular vote and only secured 34 seats out of 308. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader, who "took the Liberals out of the wilderness," according to Nanos. However, it’s possible that he may return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election.
The Clock Ticks
As the pressure mounts and the clock ticks down, it remains to be seen what Trudeau will do next. Will he finally make an announcement about his future, or will he try to cling onto power? The country waits with bated breath as the Liberal Party teeters on the edge of disaster.
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